(Courtesy of Talk Business & Politics.)
From the current Governor to the President to 2016 Presidential contenders, Arkansas voters have clear opinions on Mike Beebe, Mike Huckabee, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
New results from the latest Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll show Democratic Governor Mike Beebe and former Republican Governor Mike Huckabee, a possible 2016 GOP Presidential candidate, as very popular with the state’s voters.
Q. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gov. Mike Beebe?
42% Very Favorable
25.5% Somewhat Favorable (67.5% Favorable)
16% Neutral
11.5% Somewhat Unfavorable
4% Very Unfavorable (15.5% Unfavorable)
1% Don’t Know
Q. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Huckabee?
35% Very Favorable
22% Somewhat Favorable (57% Favorable)
14% Neutral
12% Somewhat Unfavorable
14% Very Unfavorable (26% Unfavorable)
3% Don’t Know
The Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll was part of a survey of 1,780 likely voters this November that also weighed in on opinions regarding the 2014 U.S. Senate race, the Governor’s race, and all four Congressional races. The poll, which was conducted July 22-25 across all four Congressional districts, has a margin of error of +/-2.3%.
The survey also tested possible 2016 Democratic Presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton, Arkansas’ former First Lady and the former U.S. First Lady, Secretary of State, and New York Senator.
Q. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton?
29% Very Favorable
12% Somewhat Favorable (41% Favorable)
7.5% Neutral
9.5% Somewhat Unfavorable
40% Very Unfavorable (49.5% Unfavorable)
2% Don’t Know
As in previous surveys, Democratic Pres. Barack Obama remains immensely unpopular in Arkansas — a major reason his imagery has continued to be used in negative political ads this election cycle.
Q. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Pres. Barack Obama?
18.5% Very Favorable
13% Somewhat Favorable (31.5% Favorable)
6% Neutral
9% Somewhat Unfavorable
53% Very Unfavorable (62% Unfavorable)
0.5% Don’t Know
“If you needed further proof as to why Republicans and special interest groups have invested so heavily in trying to tie Arkansas Democratic political figures to Pres. Obama, these numbers should make the strategy abundantly clear,” said Talk Business & Politics Editor-in-Chief Roby Brock. “Conversely, these numbers also explain why Mike Beebe and Mike Huckabee selectively re-emerge in candidate endorsements in the state.”
ANALYSIS
Dr. Jay Barth, professor of political science at Hendrix College, helped analyze the survey results. He offered the following analysis:
Our surveys have examined the favorability and job performance of Governor Mike Beebe and President Barack Obama numerous times. Therefore, the extremely positive numbers for Beebe and extremely negative numbers for Obama are not new news.
Beebe continues to be perceived favorably by all subgroups of Arkansas voters, including Republicans. In a deeply polarized country politically, Beebe is the exceptional politician who is popular with his fellow partisans but also deeply respected by the opposition.
Obama, as he is nationally, is a deeply polarizing figure in Arkansas. Democrats (82 percent either strongly approving or approving) and African-Americans (just over three-quarters strongly approving or approving) see the President in an extremely positive light, but all other subgroups of Arkansas voters see him more negatively. Importantly, with candidates such as Congressman Tom Cotton trying to attach his Democratic opponent Mark Pryor to the President, the crucial independent voters in the state view the President more negative than positive by a 67 percent to 27 percent margin.
In this poll, we also examine the public attitudes towards two other figures with Arkansas connections who may well run for President in 2016 —- former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Arkansas First Lady Hillary Clinton. Despite his increasing disconnection from the state since the end of his governorship in 2007, Huckabee remains very popular in the state with majority favorability numbers. With the exception of Democrats (who are split 29 percent favorable and 51 percent unfavorable) all other groups of Arkansans see Huckabee in a favorable light.
Hillary Clinton, however, is a decidedly more complicated figure across the key subgroups of Arkansas voters. Clinton is certainly more popular than the President who appointed her Secretary of State. Moreover, she has plurality favorability among African-Americans (72 percent strongly or somewhat favorable), Democrats (85 percent favorable), and women (45 percent favorable). But other subgroups are decidedly more negative towards Clinton with Independents breaking 56 percent to 32 percent against her. The gender gap on Clinton is also stark with 45 percent of Arkansas women seeing her favorably but only 36 percent of men doing so. This polling suggests that Arkansas Democrats, who have been looking to a Clinton nomination as a way to break out of the political doldrums created by the Obama presidency, might temper their expectations to some degree.
METHODOLOGY & DEMOGRAPHICS
This survey was conducted by Talk Business Research on Tuesday-Friday, July 22-25, 2014. The poll, which has a margin of error of +/-2.3%, was completed using IVR survey technology and through live contact calls.
Approximately 18% of the voters in our sample were contacted via cell phone with live callers. This is in response to the increased reliance by voters on cell phones. Additionally, we applied our standard weighting to the poll results based on age, gender, and Congressional district.
Notes on Raw Data/Weighting:
Age (weighted according to 2010 statewide vote)
8% Under the age of 30
19% Between the ages of 30 and 44
42% Between the ages of 45 and 64
32% 65 or older
Ethnicity
8% African-American
1% Asian-American
87% Caucasian or White
1% Latino
3% Other
Party Identification
32.5% Democratic
30.5% Independent
30% Republican
7 % Other
Gender (weighted according to 2010 statewide vote)
45% Male
55% Female
Congressional District (weighted according to population)
25% CD1
25% CD2
25% CD3
25% CD4
- See more at: http://talkbusiness.net/2014/08/poll-testing-beebe-hillary-huckabee-and-obama-popularity/#sthash.49dOVwjo.dpuf
